Futures Curve by Accutic

Treasury Trading Update.

From today's Accutic Plus Report.

Greece – the gift that keeps on giving – now that they have had their elections and new powers have come to the fore – the anti – Teutonic tweets are on – full blast. I think this time it is quite serious and they could be out of the Euro soon. However – I hope to hear about the consequences of that occurrence especially the impact on the Eurozone as a whole. There have been several stories on the web and I believe some honorable mentions in the mainstream media about the Target 2 capital accounts and the current imbalances (money owed by peripheral nation to the ECB  - of which the Bundesbank has the largest exposure.

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Treasury Trading Update.

From today's Accutic Plus Report: Fairly incredibly slow today – the early theme was to attack the Sep. Eurodollar options via put structures – see players list below. Also those that were wise enough to be long 10yr. options seem to be taking off positions in 10yr. call options.

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Treasury Trading Update.

From today's Accutic Plus report - further info at members only page....

In the Pantheon of bad calls – I must throw another  wastrel on the fire – take a look at what that CRB index did – after trending up for 7 days all was given back in just 3 day’s. That combined with more weak NFP data put the Kybosh – big time – on bear strategies.

Treasury Trading Update.

From today's Accutic Plus report:

One minute charts (right) show markets reacting not only to weaker than expected jobless claims data but also to the remarks at Draghis press conference were of a very “less dovish” than expected tone.

Moving forward - markets setting up for tomorrow's NFP number - for more members log in here:

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Treasury Trading Update.

From today's Accutic Plus Report:

Seeing more 10yr. option deals coming in - pricing a move to 130 area vs. June and 129 area vs. Sep. Some of the components of the CRB – which I have been watching a bit more closely lately have pulled back a bit.

For the rest of the day – look for Stocks – via the S&P 500 to improve – as they do this will put downward pressure on June 10yr. futures – currently trading 13205.5.  Trading activity will probably be fairly subdued for balance of the day.

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Treasury Trading Update.

From today's Accutic Plus Report:

If things stay relatively calm – pay attention to what I laid out the other day and is now becoming manifest. See chart below – and again consider the move forecast on the 27^th.

http://financialfutures.typepad.com/accutic_plus/2012/04/treasury-trading-update-18.htm

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Treasury Trading Update.

From today's Accutic Plus Report:

Charts like a quiet patient are trending sideway’s – satisfactory I suppose in that there are no concerning changes in blood pressure or any disturbing palpitations, in terms of activity though it is ruinous. I have thus booked a train for an early departure. Below is some food for future thought.

The discussion involves a lookt at previously highly correlated relationship between treasury yields and commodity inflation. Worth paying attention to but still being trumped by post crisis remedies.

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Treasury Trading Update.

From today's Accutic Plus Report:

Signal conflict – warning signal conflict.

Advocating higher treasury futures and lower yields has been correct – however a pull back is looking imminent because we are seeing a sharp move higher in many commodity prices this a.m. Also on the daily out look prices have been ....

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Treasury Trading Update.

From today's Accutic Plus Report:

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Thanks,

TomP

 

 

Treasury Trading Update.

From today's Accutic Plus Report:

As we head into today’s FOMC announcement and potentially more important press conference – so far the market is trading as if the fed will not do anything. For if they were to announce some form of Sterilized QE it would likely weigh heavily on the short end.

Naturally this price action will be occurring later today as we digest the FOMC announcement and then later are entertained by Ben B. himself – so stay tuned.

Again main thing to watch for will be any mention of the "sterilised" approach to QE wich - has triggered a lot of trade in Fed Fund options since it was 1st mentioned several weeks ago.

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