Futures Curve by Accutic

Treasury Trading Update.

From today's Accutic Plus report:

The Germans for their part have their horse blinders on so far and are more interested in seeing all the scores of conditions being in compliance before they can contribute any funds. So we have the G-20 over the weekend – Monday the German Parliament will vote on approving the bail out package – The Dutch are voting on Tues and Wed.. Also on Wed. the 2^nd LTRO will occur – in today’s FT there was an article stating the amount that will be demanded should be about the same as the initial on back in Dec. The reason for the smaller demand.....

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Treasury Trading Update.

From today's Accuti Plus Report:

Treasury Trading Update.

Today there seems to be more focus on the size of the bail out mechanism. Germany is signaling that they are not in favor of increasing beyond 500 bln. euro the amount of funds that should be available. Some of the other triple A rated EZ members however are in favor of running the 250 bln. EFSF in tandem with the 500 bln.

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Treasury Trading Update.

From today's Accutic Plus Report:

Here is an important element to pay attention to: namely in the next couple of days Greece is expected to pass measures that will allow the insertion of retro-active clauses into existing Greek debt – the very debt involved in the PSI that will enable Greece to force holders to take huge losses in case they do not feel like taking those losses voluntarily.

Will failure of the PSI deal be enough to capture the markets attention – absolutely

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TomP

 

Treasury Trading Update.

From today's accutic plus report:

Currently the FT has pointed out that a mad sprint is under way to avoid missing a debt payment date on Mar. 20^th. In order to avoid missing that payment and risk catastrophe there are at least 8 dates to pay attention to between now and Mar. 20. Market seems to be predicting that all these hurdles will be signed off on over the next 28 calendar days. However, in no way should you say – Ok Greece has been dealt with – let’s move on to the next thing – do not make that mistake.

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Treasury Trading Update.

From todays Accutic Plus report:

Mar 14 ED contracts have sold off around 10 ticks after yesterdays slightly stronger than expected PPI report. Prices on that contract now in slightly over sold territory on both the Daily and hourly RSI’s. Daily picture on 10yr. notes looks like price’s could still head lower from current levels – however intraday hourly trend has turned up. Large trades in April 10yr. options look like players rolling some positions – will have to check the open interest report on Monday to verify.

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Treasury Trading Update.

From today's Accutic Plus Report:

Just as were going to press here getting headlines that Greek deals on bailout and PSI could be complete by Monday - this pushes US fixed income lower accross the board and spawns a decent amount of option trade - a few minutes later some of this exhuberance is tempered - again very fluid and lots of moving parts.

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From todays Accutic Plus report:

Activity has just spiked in ED options and even a decent 2yr. note option trade – currently 11:40 a.m.c.s.t. if you note earlier there were some good block trades that seem to be working news wires that I am aware of are not putting out anything concrete – they do indicate the teleconference is ongoing..

2 things just being pointed out now: one is rehashing the story that Greek Prime Minister and conservative leader have submitted their letters of approval. The other is apple just gave back all its gains (was up over $20.00/ share).

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Treasury Trading Update.

From today's Accutic Plus Report:

When you think about it these options will be in play when Greece has to make its payment (Mar. 20) something like 14 bln. of debt. The way things are going it might make sense to have something on that provides exposure for that date. All the negotiating that is occurring could continue to stall right up to that date in some way shape or form.

A look at today and yesterday's players list will bring you up to date: 

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Treasury Trading Update.

From today's Accutic Plus Report:

More importantly as one of the commentators was explaining on Bloomberg television this a.m. – getting the agreement implemented into Greek law has not occurred yet – therefore repetition of the past where deals look imminent then fall apart is still a possibility. Perhaps this explains why Eurodollar futures are under a bit of pressure even thought the steady decline in the 3 month libor setting continues.

 

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Treasury Trading Update.

From todays Accutic Plus Report:

Re: The LTRO vs what were seeing on the floor - some FT and other sources point out the flaws - enjoy

This combined with behind the scenes exposes of how banks are manufacturing financial instruments that qualify for loan collateral and that the operation is fraught with other concerns including dragging up the concept of Balkanization or disintegration of the central bank by ceding to much risk and responsibility for collateral supervision to the 7 regional central banks. This by the way is mostly from today’s FT if you want to dig in a bit deeper. Main point I want to make is – as I have been noting the steady decline in the Libor setting and the benefit of Decembers LTRO – we have been seeing and still are seeing increasingly bearish structures employed across much of the Eurodollar contracts – fronts – reds – greens and blues…

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