A fairly tame session yesterday, however (let me set down my glasses for emphasis) however, the open interest rose 28K in the June 10yr. futures to 1,513K (preliminary) and that puts it back almost to the high for the year last Thursday the 25th of 1,529K. So this market remains in a strength mode and the Bears are in control. Those of you who have come late to the party do not have the comfort of being short this market from above 117’00 and may have to endure some heat. Again this is a long term trade and money management wise those with strong shorts (above 117’00) should have a stop in on part of the position around 116’13.5 which would be a 50% retracement of the 3/18/10 high of 117’17.5 to last Thursdays low of 115’09 see chart below. Those holding short positions established late last week, say under 116’00 should look to add to shorts on rallies. I will be watching the price action closely and will expect further sale opportunities to emerge. In order for the bulls to gain control of this market a number of things will need to happen, so do stay with me and feel free to call 01 312 432 5083 for a consultation. Also please find and read the disclaimer at this time or call and I will direct you to it. Currently the blog still has some bugs regarding navigation to it.
Some factors to be aware of this week that will have an impact on prices include the index related buying that occurs especially when new securities of long duration are added to the mix (which will be the case this month as we did auction 10 and 30 year securities). I will hope to have some intelligence on the Index later today. On the bearish side as I noted yesterday we should see economic strength via the ISM data on Wednesday and Thursday followed on Friday by a substantial increase in non farm payrolls.
Chart below shows area currently focused on in terms of trading the market. Again this is tricky business and the battle between the Bulls and Bears rages and is getting quite exciting with the stakes rising. Digest the information carefully and again feel free to call with questions.
| 10yr. | |||||
| 355 | Bot | 1500 | K 14/16P1X2 | 7 | ^M11530 |
| 370 | Bot | 500 | M14P | 30 | ^M11528 |
| 560 | Bot | 3000 | K14/15+P SPD | 26 | 11528/29 |
| 560 | Bot | 4000 | M12/14P1X2 | 8 | 11525+/26 |
| 660 | Bot | 2000 | K15P | 26/27 | 11528/29 |
| 660 | Bot | 3000 | +K15P/-17C | 9 | ^M11526+ |
| 685 | Bot | 750 | M16+^ | 213 | ^M11527 |
| 714 | Bot | 500 | M16^ | 11 | 11529/29+ |
| 197 | Sold | 1000 | M17C | 40 | ^M11530 |
| 287 | Sold | 1000 | K16C | 49 | 11601/01+ |
| 287 | Sold | 1200 | M19/20 C SPD | 24 | ^M11529+ |
| 560 | Sold | 1000 | K18C | 8 | 11601+/02 |
| 685 | Sold | 2000 | M17^ | 219/218 | ^M11528 |
| 709 | Sold | 2000 | K14+P | 18/17 | 11528+/29 |
| 714 | Sold | 500 | M14P | 29 | ^M11529/ |
| 30yr. | |||||
| 116 | Bot | 2000 | M12/13P SPD | 15 | 11515/16 |
| 287 | Sold | 500 | M15C | 154 | 11511/12 |
| 660 | Sold | 1500 | K13P | 22/21 | 11514/15 |
| 660 | Sold | 600 | M18/20C SPD | 24 | 11515/16 |
| 2 + 5yr. | |||||
| 660 | Bot | 3000 | M114P | 27/28 | |
| Fed Fund | |||||
| 287 | Bot | 2000 | X68/75c | 3 | X9952+-53 |
| 690 | Bot | 100 | x56/62/68/75C CONDOR | .25 | X9953/53+ |
| 714 | Bot | 2500 | X68/75c | 3 | X9952+-53 |
| 714 | Bot | 1000 | X62/75C SPD | 6.2 | X9953/53+ |
| 690 | Sold | 1700 | X68/75c | 3 | X9952+-53 |
| 815 | Sold | 1000 | X62/75C SPD | 6.2 | X9953/53+ |
| 815 | Sold | 500 | X56/62C SPD | 3.2 | X9953/53+ |
| 825 | Sold | 1500 | X68/75c | 3 | X9952+-53 |
Comments