Quite a few more doves making their voices heard – weighing in favor of further QE and lots of it. Clearly it is the most palatable – for our elected officials and more intelligent banking leaders. Everyone, including me should relax and let these ultra-clever mo fo’s continue to print more and more and more and more and more and more and more and more and more – to infinity if they deem it so, money.
However the traders may have something to say about this – the market may have something to say about this, the Chineese may have something to say about this, many, many, many, may have something to say about this. Let’s try to be clever, the long end looks to be heading lower even though we may indeed get more QE so follow the trend. Below I show a short term level to focus on. Flows seem conducive to giving the short side a shot so why not. See disclaimer – if you don’t find ask will send. Some levels and ideas just below – flows follow that.
NOTE: Charts below depict Dec 30yr. futures. Would focus on Dec options as they do not expire until after the Nov. 2 and 3 fed meeting.
Larger flows from a.m. session include but not limited to the following:
| 10/19/2010 | |||||
| Screen this a.m.: | |||||
| edz0 9937 put trades 2.25, 750 | |||||
| edz0 9962 call trades 8, 1000 | |||||
| shrt dec 9950 call trades 3.5, 250 | |||||
| edh1 9975 call trades 2.25, 100 | |||||
| edz0 9925 put trades 1.5/250, 1.75/1000 | |||||
| edh1 9925 put trades 5, 1000 | |||||
| edx0 9975 call trades .5, 500 | |||||
| Paper | B | 2,000 | EOZ95/96 cspread | 3 | 9941.5 |
| Paper | B | 1,000 | EDZ095/96c1X2 | 2.75 | 9965 |
| Paper | B | 2,000 | EDZ090/92/95 p fly | 1.25 | 9965 |
| Paper | B | 400 | EOU 90/91 straddle stupids | 1.04 | N/A |
| Advantage | B | 2,000 | EDX/Z 9962 p stupid | 9.5 | 9964.5 |
| Drax | B | 10,000 | EDX 92/95 ps vs. EDZ95c | .5 p spread | ^ 9965.5 |
| They were buying the strategy yesterday as well - as much as 20K | |||||
| Paper | B | 500 | EDZ2 88 strad | 25.5 | 9892 |
| straddles: | |||||
| edx0 9962 9.5/10.5 f=9964.5 | |||||
| edz0 9962 13/14 | |||||
| edf0 9962 15/16 f=9959.5 shorts | |||||
| edh1 9962 20/21 | |||||
| edm1 9950 32/32.5 f=9955 EOx 9937 12.5/13.5 | |||||
| edu1 9950 35/36 f=9949.5 EOz 9937 16.5/17 | |||||
| EOf 9937 18/19 | |||||
| reds EOH 9937 25.5/26 | |||||
| edz1 9937 44.5/45.5 f 9941.5 EOM 9925 37.5/38 | |||||
| edh2 9937 50.5/51.5 f=9932 EOU 9912 49.5/50.5 | |||||
| edm2 9925 60/61 f=9920 | |||||
| edu2 9912 70/71 f=9907 | |||||
| Paper | B | 250 | EDZ2 88 strad | ||
| Paper | B | 250 | ED red pack 9700 p strip | 18 | N/A |
| Drax | B | 5,000 | EDZ091/92/93/95 p fly | 1 | 9964.5 |
| Paper | B | 1,000 | EDH191/93/95/96 p condor | 0.5 | 9959 |
| Paper | S | 1,000 | EDZ095/96 strangle | 11 | N/A |
| Adv | S | 1,000 | EDH1 9850p | 1.75 | N/A |
| Adv | S | 1,000 | EDH1 9875p | 2.5 | N/A |
| Fortis | B | 5,000 | EDF09875p | 1.25 | 9959 |
| Paper | B | 2,500 | EDZ096/97p1X2 | flat | 9964.5 |
| Citi | B | 1,500 | EDZ2 92/93 c spread | 1.5 | 9877 |
| 10yr. | |||||
| Paper | B | 500 | TYZ127c | 0.53 | 12619.5 |
| Paper | S | 1,100 | TYZ125p | 0.31 | 12614.5 |
| Mann | B | 500 | TYZ128/130 cspread | 0.22 | 12617.5 |
| Paper | S | 500 | TYH122p | 0.44 | 12614/14.5 |
| Paper | S | 4,000 | TYZ125p | 0.17 | ^12617 |
| Paper | B | 1,500 | TYX125.5/126 p spread | 0.03 | 1,500 |
| Paper | S | 7,000 | TYZ125p | 0.29 | ^12617 and 17.5 |
| Swiss B | B | 4,200 | TYX126/127.5 combo's | 0.29 | 12624/24.5 |
| 30 yr. | |||||
| Merril | B | 2,000 | USZ127/138 combo | 0.25 | ^13107 |
| Paper | S | 500 | TYX132c | 0.19 | 13113 |
| Fed Fund | |||||
| T-link | S | 200 | FFZ81c | 2.75 | N/A |
| Dowd Wesct | B | 500 | FFZ9981c | 2.75 | N/A |
| T-link | B | 500 | FFF/J 9968-9975-9981 pfly stupid | 1 | N/A |
| T-link | B | 500 | FFZ68/75/81 p fly | 0.5 | N/A |
| T-link | B | 500 | FFF68/75/81 p fly | 0.5 | N/A |
| Word is this is a hedge against core long call positions protects against move below 9981 | |||||
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