All the little helpers pushing 10yr. cash yield back towards 2.5%
- Yesterdays POMO
- Month end duration indices out .08 in Europe and .06 in US treasuries
- Some weak components core prices and employment costs in today’s GDP
- Indication of more QE after yesterdays routine PD survey
Ok that’s enough bullets for now – lets get down to “bwass tacks Lamar” - Lilly VonSchtoop from Blazing Saddles. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AgxuVOd9Mt8&feature=related
With the fed so clueless and undoubtedly afraid to admit so, they are inside the – here we go now: the octagon, the lions den, ah fuck it, lets just say perdition. After all you may as well throw a lot of traditional analysis out the window and just try and follow the game in other ways. With the amount of money at stake each and every day, and with the solicitation of the players, hey what do you think we should do, and what do you think the impact will be. Oh and by the way – which securities do you think we should buy. Etc. Etc. With the Treasury advisory committee stacked with names such as Paul McCulley from Pimco and Paul Tudor Jones, Richard Axilrod of Moore Capital Management etc. one does not get the feeling that these are unbiased pure academics. Rather it would be safe to assume they are more akin to self serving astute traders, myrmadons to the almighty buck.
Are you hip – you want to get in the game – ok. Find a good swap dealer and get all the skinny you can from them. Next read zero hedge and other non main stream media to pick up on the vibe of what the likely game plan is and who should be vilified and who should not. Some of it like me is childish angst at times as one rails against the powers that be. If you ain’t one what else can you do.
I like looking at the flows tedious boring work but every once in a while some valuable clues so there you go.
Larger flows from a.m. session include but not limited to the following:
| 10/29/2010 | |||||
| BCG | S | 7,000 | EDH1 93/95/96/97 c condor | 4 | 9962 |
| Paper | B | 1,000 | EDZ097/98 c 1X2 | 0.5 | 9967 |
| Paper | B | 500 | EDZ12 9887 strad | 29.5 | 9895 area |
| Paper | S | 2,000 | EDZ12 83/85/86/87 c condar | 1 | 9896 |
| Drax | S | 1,000 | EDM0 9975c | 2.5 | 9958.5 |
| Mann | B | 1,000 | EDZ0 96 strad | 11 | 9967 |
| RJO | B | 1,000 | EDZ093/95/96 pfly | 0.75 | 9967 |
| Paper | B | 1,000 | EDZ12 90/91 cs vs. 85p | 3 csprd over | 9896.5 |
| CCM | B | 5,000 | EOH93c | 12 | 9936 |
| Paper | S | 2,000 | EDZ2 9925c | 3 | 9896 |
| RJO | B | 250 | EOZ93/95 strangle | 0.09 | 9944 |
| New Edge | B | 5,000 | EOH93/95c1X2 | 2 | 9936 |
| 10yr. Opts No real trades prior to the other than the locals trade just below | |||||
| Locals | B/S | 1,000 | TYZ125/126 pspread | 0.28 | ^12527 |
| Post data | |||||
| Paper | S | 2,000 | TYH121/129 strangle | 0.62 | 12603/03.5 |
| Paper | B | 2,000 | TYF 126.5/127.5 c 1X1.5 | 0.05 | 12600/00.5 |
| Paper | B | 2,000 | TYZ125/TYF123 p diag | .03 Dec. over | 12600/00.5 |
| Merril | B | 3,000 | TYH130c | 0.2 | ^12512 |
| New edge | S | 2,000 | TYH125p | 1.4 | ^12512 |
| TJM | B | 5,000 | TYZ128/130c 1X2 | 0.14 | 12606/07 |
| Merril | B | 750 | TYZ118.5/119/120 pfly | 0.04 | 12605.5/06 |
| Smith B | S | 1,000 | TYZ 129/130 c spread | 0.06 | 12605.5/06 |
| Paper | B | 2,500 | TYZ125/125.5 p spreads | 0.12 | 12607.5/08 |
| Merril | B | 3,000 | TYF 121/122/125 p tree | 0.4 | 12604.5/05 |
| JP Morg | S | 1,400 | TYZ126.5p | 1.11 | ^12606 |
| JP Morg | S | 500 | TYZ126/127.5 c spread | 0.41 | 12605.5/06 |
| Crossland | S | 500 | TYZ126.5 strad | 2.03 | 12605/06 |
| Paper | B | 800 | TYZ125/128 strngl vs 124/129 strngl | .28 5/8 over | 12605/05.5 |
| 30yr. | |||||
| Greenwich | B | 2,500 | USZ 136/140 c spread | 0.22 | 130.27 |
| Merril | B | 7,000 | USZ138c | .16 and .17 | ^13030 |
| 5yr. | |||||
| Smith B | S | 3,000 | FVZ121.5c | 0.3 | ^12114 |
| Yld Curve | |||||
| JP Morg | S | 250 | USZ | 13031 | |
| JP Morg | B | 190 | ULZ | 13420 | |
| Block | |||||
| 5yr | |||||
| Block | B/S | 5,000 | FVZ | 12115.2 | |
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