The sharp leg down on the daily charts seems to have run it’s course for now. You can see the RSI dipped well below 30 and currently has recovered to around 39 vs. the Mar. future. A look at the pattern on the hourly seems to predict the market will move basiclly
side ways today and tomorrow and perhaps get motivated on eco data starting tomorrow with Retail Sales and culminating with CPI on Thursday. PPI will be released Wednesday. Those are probably the premier releases for the week but we also get Philly Fed, Jobless claims, Leading indicators, Industrial Production. There is more and here is a link to CME groups economic event page if you care too see: http://www.cmegroup.com/education/econ_calendar.html
I do not want to get ahead of what the MACD is telling me to do on the daily picture – but there is a chance it will cross indicating a change in trend from current down to up.
If and when that happens I would plan to be long and relish the opportunity as the weekly RSI has dipped back under 30 again currently printing 29.725. But you have to wait for the Daily to cross otherwise you are supposed to be on the short side.
Larger flows from a.m.session listed below.
| 2/14/2011 | |||||
| ED Options | |||||
| Merril | B | 2,000 | EDU12 9900c | 14.5 | 9809 area |
| Merril | B | 2,000 | EDU1 91/92/93/95 p condor | 2 | 9941 area |
| Paper | B | 2,000 | EDZ93/95/96 p fly | see below | N/A |
| Paper | S | 2,000 | EDU1 9725/9800 p 1X2 | 1.5 pfly | N/A |
| Above 2 trades executed as package. | |||||
| Paper | S | 3,500 | EDJ /EDM 9962 call calendar | vs. see below | |
| Paper | B | 7,000 | EDJ 9925/9950 p spread | 10 | N/A |
| Above 2 trades executed as package. | |||||
| Paper | B | 10K X 20K | EDM9975c / EDH 9975c | .25 M over | N/A |
| Paper | B | 5,000 | EDJ 9962c vs. 9937/9950 p spread | .25 call over | 9957 area |
| Paper | B | 500 | EDZ1 9837/9887 p spread | 8 | N/A |
| TJM | B | 500 | EDZ12 9875/9925c 1X2 | 6 | 9776 area |
| Paper | S | 500 | EOZ 9775 strad | 97.5 | N/A |
| Note this straddle setted 99.5 - also the EDZ 12 9775 strad traded 130.5 it settled 133 | |||||
| Paper | B | 2,000 | EOH 9875/9888 p spread | 5 | 9884/84.5 |
| Paper | S | 8,000 | EOM 9775/9825 p spread | 0.1 | 9884.5/85 |
| Paper | B | 2,000 | EDZ 9887/9912 c spread | 0.11 | 9916.5/17 |
| Fed Fund Opts | |||||
| Mann | B | 200 | FFQ9981/9987 c 1X3 | 2 | 9978/78.5 |
| Smith B | B | 1,100 | FFN9975 p | 2.25 | 9981.5/82 |
| New Edge | B | 500 | FFZ 9900/9950 p spread | 8 | ^9958 100% |
| Tradelink | B | 500 | FFV9975p - FFU 9981 p diagnol | 1 V over | N/A |
| Smith B | B | 3,000 | FFN9975p | 2.25 and 2.5 | 9981.5/82 |
| 10yr. Opts | |||||
| RJO | S | 500 | TYM117 strad | 3.37 | ^11628 |
| Paper | S | 500 | TYH119/120/121 p tree | 0.11 | ^11812 |
| Paper | S | 1,000 | TYH117.5/118/118.5 Iron fly | 0.26 | 11810.5/11 |
| Mann | B | 500 | TYH119.5c | 0.09 | 11811.5/12 |
| CSFB | S | 9,000 | TYJ118.5 c | 0.29 | 11812.5/13 |
| Above trade was executed screen and pit futures ref. above was from floor trades we saw. | |||||
| Paper | B | 2,000 | TYM120/120.5 c spread | 0.07 | 11811/11.5 |
| Mann | B | 500 | TYH118/119 p 1X2 | 0.21 | 11811/11.5 |
| Paper | S | 500 | TYH116.5/117.5/118.5/119 p condor | 0.41 | 11812/12.5 |
| CCM | B | 500 | TYM114/TYJ114.5 put diag | .28 M over | 11812.5/13 |
| Paper | S | 5,000 | TYJ114.5 puts | 0.19 | ^11631.5 |
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