Tired of getting Jaw – boned. I’m referring now the ECB and the “perception that was created by Trichet at last Thursdays meeting. No one knows with any certainty, especially me, but a healthy amount of skepticism is good to maintain. As my late friend John Liscio would say “Fidiarsi y Bene Non Fidiarsi y Meglio”. Translation – to have trust in some one is ok, to have trust in no one is even better. Easy money is the easy thing to do – shadow statistic firms will tell you there is a lot more inflation than currently being reported. A trip to the petrol station will tell you that your Euro’s (or dollar or pound’s) value ain’t what it was a month ago – not by a long shot – and as economists point out this will keep you at home more. And this means the restaurant where you might have gone for that comforting meal will have to take a pass. Other discretionary spending will decline. This leads to a slow done in economic activity. It’s coming sure as the rain.
Yesterday I read a report indicating Farm subsidies could be cut as part of the efforts to reduce federal spending. Even thought these cuts would not be implemented for over a year, floor traders did cite it yesterday as a negative. Commodity prices are starting to faulter and equity markets are doing a major reversal – the weekly trend is looking to cross lower as measured my the MACD. This activity of course has put a bid into fixed income futures. Yesterday I noted the 30yr. daily MACD was looking to cross – right now after yesterdays strong close and follow through today that is not the case – so the long bias remains the favored trade.
Larger flows listed below.
| 3/10/2011 | |||||
| Paper | S | 1,000 | EDH12 9912 strd vs. EDU 95 strad | 33 H12 over | N/A |
| TJM | S | 500 | EDH13 9787/9880 c 1X2 | 3 | 9786.5 area |
| Offering more 1X2's @ 3.5 | |||||
| New edge | B | 1,500 | EDH12 9800/9850/9900 p fly | 5 | 9817 area |
| RJO | B | 2,000 | EOM 9812/9862 p spreads | 9 | 9885 |
| Paper | B | 1,000 | EDJ/EDM 9962 c stupid | 8 | 9963.5/64 |
| Paper | B | 10,000 | EDU 9900/9925 p spread | 2 | 9954.5/55 |
| Paper | B | 5,000 | EDM1 96/95/93 1-1-1 p fly | 3.25 | ^9963.5 |
| Paper | B | 2,000 | EOU 9850 strad | 66 | 9850.5/51 |
| Paper | B | 6,000 | EOM 90c vs. EOM 80/83 p spred | 8 call over | 9886 area |
| Looks to be an exit - floor sources thought they sold the call and bought p spread for even…. Ouch | |||||
| TJM | B | 5,000 | EDM 9850 puts | 0.5 | 9863/63.5 |
| Fed Fund opts | |||||
| Mann | S | 1,000 | FFU 9981/9987 p 1X2 | 0.75 | 9981.5/82 |
| Mann | B | 200 | FFV 9975 put | .75 legs over | 9979.5/80 |
| Mann | S | 1,000 | FFU 9981/9987 p 1X2 | .5 leggs over | 9981.5/82 |
| 10yr. Opts | |||||
| Paper | B | 6,000 | TYJ116.5/117.5 p 1X2 | 0.04 | 11831.5 to 03 area |
| Paper | S | 3,000 | TYJ116/117.5 p spread | .10 and .09 | 11903.5 |
| New Edge | B | 3,000 | TY Wk 2 119.5 c | 0.07 | 11909 area |
| CCM | B | 600 | TYM 119 strad | 3.01 | ^11908 |
| Smith B | S | 5,000 | TYM 122c | 0.31 | 11906/08 |
| Smith B | S | 5,000 | TYM120/121/122 c ladders | .07 legs over | 11906/08 |
| Paper | B | 2,000 | TY Wk 2 118.5 put | 0.01 | 11910/10.5 |
| Paper | B | 500 | TY Wk 2 118/118.5/119 Iron fly's | 0.29 | 11908.5/09 |
| Paper | B | 600 | TY Wk2 118/118.5/119 Iron fly's | 0.25 | 11900/01 |
| Note Wk 2 options expire tomorrow…. | |||||
| Merril | B | 1,000 | TYJ 119/120 c spread | 0.27 | 11903/03.5 |
| New Edge | B | 1,000 | TYM124c | 0.1 | 11902/02.5 |
| JP Morg | S | 3,000 | 116/117.5 p spread | .18 and .19 | N/A |
| 30yr. Opts | |||||
| Paper | B | 1,000 | USJ 117/118 p spread | 0.13 | 11922 |
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