Is it a good idea for the US to adopt the EU style of having a freaking press conference right after the FOMC meetings? I would say anything that mimics what they are doing in the EU is doomed to failure. This is of course is not on par with trying to unite a bunch of culturally different enterprises (sovereign countries) under a common set of rules that favors the Germans to the detriment of all others. But on a smaller scale, what we are talking about here is – exponentially multiplying the opportunities for “talking heads” to act smarmy one on one with the “big cheese”. I watch some of the EU meetings and you see these gamey little reporters sharp shooting with Trichet and it comes across as contrived unseemly and quite entertaining actually. And that is probably the name of the game. Apparently the scheduling of the FOMC meeting and the 5yr. auction scheduled for that day will be changed in order to accommodate prime time (traders in this case) viewers. They are in rehearsals now for the 1st show – and it’s currently being modeled after the EU presentation. Depending on how the thrusts and parries go the Fed may be in a new business – the entertainment business. Get ready for the next Fed chairman to be a bit more swarthy and appealing than the current dude. Trichet seems to have charmed his weekly game show participants in a manner that allows him to skate gracefully from question to question – getting only as wet as he cares to on a given topic before spinning away like a figure skater to dance with the next partner. If this is what Bernanke is going for - good luck! The consequences of this exercise may be unintended and the show may have a shorter run than Rosanne Barrs’ singing career.
Mean time markets performing weakly as measured by price action on the 10yr. treasury. Being long is fine – depending where you got in. Unfortunately I got in late on the current cycle – so not being rewarded much yet – no heat – but no reward just yet. It looks like price will establish an interim low soon and I will be able to move stop protection to a level where a profit will occur on the trade – so that is satisfactory.
Large trade in ED options looks to be a one million dollar hedge and nothing more. Seeing some call trading in Sep. 10yr. options – still not much liquidity there but good to see some action coming in there.
If you want more – call otherwise enjoy your Easter weekend.
Larger flows from a.m. session listed below.
| 4/21/2011 | |||||
| Paper | B | 3,000 | EDM9975c | 0.75 | N/A |
| 1st op | B | 2,000 | EDZ1 9925/9950 psprd | 5 | N/A |
| Smith B | B | 25,000 | EDH2 88/91/93 p fly | 2.5 | 9934.5/35 |
| Paper | B | 1,000 | EOM 83/86/88 p fly | 2.5 | 9906/06.5 |
| Fed Fund opts | |||||
| JP Morg | B | 500 | FFH9925/9975 combo | 2.25 put over | 9961.5/62 |
| Paper | B | 350 | FFU 9981 strad | 7.5 | 9983/83.5 |
| CSFB | B | 500 | FFU 9950 p | 0.75 | 9983/83.5 |
| Mann | S | 1,000 | FFG9981c vs 9956/9962 p spred | .75 call over | 9966.5/67 |
| Paper | B/S | 500 | FFZ9981/9987 c 1X2 | 2.5 | 9975.5/76 |
| 10yr. Opts | |||||
| Merril | B | 2,500 | TYU 124c | .17 and .18 | 12002 |
| JP Morg | B | 5,000 | TYM122c | 0.11 | ^12000/01 |
| now bidding .11 covered 12002 | |||||
| Merril | S | 2,000 | TYwk5 120 strad | .52 and .50 | 11931/00 |
| New Edge | S | 1,000 | TYU 123c | 0.24 | ^11917.5 |
| Paper | S | 1,500 | TYM120 strad | 1.40 and 1.39 | 12000 area |
| Paper | B | 1,500 | TYK120p | 0.03 | 12004.5/05 |
| Paper | B | 1,000 | TYM118.5/121 combo | 0.1 | 12003/03.5 |
| Paper | B | 500 | TYM116p | 3 | 12002 area |
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